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What causes currency
values to fluctuate?
The simple answer to this complex question
is that supply and demand determine the value of a currency.
If demand is high, the value rises, and vice versa. Factors
that affect supply and demand include the following: |
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Interest
rates
When a country's interest rates are high
relative to elsewhere, money tends to flow into that country
as investors and speculators seek to take advantage of the
higher interest rates. This "interest differential" boosts
the demand for the currency and can cause its value to rise. |
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Inflation
The causes of inflation are much debated – foreign
debt and the increased taxation needed to service it; using high
interest rates to attract foreign currency deposits and consequently
inflating the cost of money; too much money in circulation causing
the currency’s value to decline. When inflation is high, a
country becomes less competitive in international markets, causing
a drop in exports and a rise in imports, which tends to push the
currency downwards. All else being equal, when a country’s
central bank prints more money, inflation goes up and the exchange
rate (the price of the currency) goes down. |
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Balance
of trade
If a country runs a substantial trade
surplus, the result of other countries wanting its exports,
a large demand for its currency usually follows and therefore
the currency’s value should appreciate. By contrast,
if a country relies more on imports and runs a large trade
deficit, it must sell its currency to buy someone else’s
goods. This puts downward pressure on the currency and usually
causes it to lose value. |
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Economic
growth
Countries experiencing a deep recession
often find that their exchange rate is weakening. Traders
in the currency markets may take the slow growth to be a
sign of general economic weakness and "mark down" the
value of the currency as a result. On the other hand, economies
with strong "export-led" growth may see their currency's
rise in value. |
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Market speculators
When speculators decide, based on special factors
such as political events or changing commodity prices, that a currency
is going to fall in value, they sell that currency and buy those
that they anticipate will rise in value. This can have a significant
effect on a currency. Governments are limited as to what they can
do to offset the power of speculators because they generally have
limited reserves of foreign currencies compared to daily turnovers
in the FX market. |
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Government
budget deficits/surpluses
If a government runs a deficit, it has
to borrow money, by selling bonds. If it can’t borrow
enough from its own citizens, it must sell to foreign investors.
That means selling more of its currency, driving the price
down. |
| Statistics on all these items are reported
on a regular basis. The precise date and time of the data releases
are well known to the market in advance and exchange rates can move
accordingly. |
What
is the difference between
speculating and hedging in foreign exchange?
Hedging is insurance, its purpose to minimize risk and protect against negative
events. In the forex market, hedging can be used to mitigate the effects of currency
fluctuations. Thus, a business importing from overseas could purchase a forward
contract in the amount of its payable for a future shipment, locking in at the
current rate of exchange between, say, the English pound and the US dollar. This
hedges the business from unfavourable changes in that exchange rate between now
and the date when payment is due. Speculating, on the other hand, is not linked
to an underlying business transaction. Speculators deliberately incur risk in
the hope of increasing their profit. |
Is Jameson involved in speculating?
No. Jameson’s service is confined to the
traditional FX market and includes three types of transaction: spot,
outright forwards and swaps. Jameson
does not put our clients' capital at risk by trading in foreign exchange,
nor do we deal with clients who speculate.
What is economic exposure?
There are various types of exposure, all describing
a kind of risk. If a company imports from other countries, that
company is exposed to the risk of fluctuating exchange rates. Such
fluctuations can affect a company's earnings, cash flow
and foreign investments.
How can I protect myself from economic
exposure?
The Forward Contract is one of the most effective
ways to protect against economic exposure. A Forward Contract is
a foreign exchange transaction in which a client locks in a rate
for settlement on a date more than five days in the future. It
is an agreement to purchase or sell a set amount of a foreign currency
at a specified price for settlement at a predetermined future date,
or within a predetermined window of time. Closed forwards must
be settled on a specified date. Open forwards set a window of time
during which any portion of the contract can be settled, as long
as the entire contract is settled by the end date. |
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How
is a Wire Transfer completed?
A wire transfer is an electronic instruction
for payment. Jameson Bank ’s Wire Department forwards
your instruction to our correspondent bank, which transfers the converted
funds to the beneficiary’s bank in the destination country, for
deposit directly to the beneficiary’s account |
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Whom
do I call to give feedback on the service I receive at Jameson?
Feedback on any service provided by Jameson
Bank's Customer Service Agents should be directed
to the National Customer Service Manager, at (416) 360-2136
ext. 240. |
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MRA
- Managed Risk Approach
Only Jameson Bank makes managed risk and exceptional service to you our top
priority. |
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News
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Contact
Us
Talk to a trader, get an FX needs assessment, talk to a customer
service agent, or give us your feedback. |
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Bank Brochure
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